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Wind and solar energy are currently the most economical new sources of electricity in almost the entire world, according to an analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). The study predicts that, in five years’ time, it will be more expensive to produce in a pre-existing factory using coal or natural gas than to build new solar or wind farms.
There is, however, an economic limit to the expansion of these clean energy sources, there is a saturation point in every country.
In BNEF’s assessment, renewable energies will not gain more than 70% or 80% of the electricity generation market.
In the evolution of the global energy system in the next 30 years, photovoltaic and wind sources will represent 56% of electricity generation in the middle of the century and, added to batteries, will represent 80% of the 15.1 billion USD invested in new energy capacity. Even in Europe, which has strict policies to encourage renewable energy and discourages fossil fuels, wind and solar energy will probably not exceed 80% of the supply.
According to the New Energy Outlook 2020, this perspective is based on the significant construction of solar and wind installations – which are highly competitive -, the growing adoption of electric vehicles and greater energy efficiency in all sectors.
Global oil demand is expected to peak in 2035 and then decline by 0,7% yearon-year to return to 2018 levels by 2050.
The report also showed that electric vehicles will reach starting price parity with combustion engine vehicles before 2025, spurring faster adoption. Its growth will offset the expansion of demand in aviation, shipping and petrochemicals and will shape the future of oil.